Coffee soon a luxury good? How climate change affects coffee beans

Coffee soon a luxury good? How climate change affects coffee beans [ad_1]

More and more coffee farmers are struggling with small harvests. Higher temperatures increase pest infestation.

Climate change is affecting coffee worldwide. You can feel that in Uganda, the country that wants to become the largest coffee producer in Africa.

Even after weeks, the rain in February does not stop in the hilly area around Lake Victoria in eastern Uganda. It doesn’t usually rain there at this time of year, but rain and sunshine are no longer reliable. Christopher Bigambo, an 83-year-old coffee farmer from Namawojjolo, a small village 35 kilometers east of Kampala, is concerned: “Coffee used to be produced a lot and we harvested sacks by the sack. But now that is no longer possible.”

Other farmers in the region are also reporting massive harvest losses in the past season. The Ugandan government is a thorn in the side of the dwindling income. Because they actually want to increase national coffee production to 20 million bags per year by 2030 – and replace Ethiopia as Africa’s largest coffee producer.

Pressure on coffee farmers is increasing worldwide

However, scientists are skeptical about the Ugandan plans because there is a long-term problem behind the crop losses. “We are observing that climate change is increasing the pressure on coffee farmers in almost all growing regions of the world,” says Roman Grüter, bioscientist at the Zurich University of Applied Sciences.

Coffee could become a luxury good

In Europe, this has long been noticeable in the price. Last year, the European statistical office Eurostat warned that coffee could become a luxury good. In addition to general inflation, this was mainly due to massive crop failures – caused by extreme climates.

drought in Brazil

In Brazil, these are by no means new. “We can name some very important climatic accidents that we have had in recent years,” says Márcio Ferreira, President of Brazil’s Coffee Exporters. A severe drought in the state of Espírito Santo, the largest producer of Robusta coffee in Brazil, caused the harvest in the South American country to fall from 13 million to 8.35 million bags from 2014 to 2016.

Plants are sensitive to change

From a scientific point of view, such events are not surprising. In a study, Grüter and his research team found out that coffee suffers far more from climate change than other export fruits such as avocados or cashew nuts. “The Arabica bean in particular is very sensitive to higher temperatures,” says Grüter.

The coffee plants love the warm, humid climate of the tropics, but place the highest demands on their environment. Similar to grapevines, changing soil conditions and temperatures have an immediate impact on taste and quality. In the long term, the rising temperatures also create a veritable paradise for pests such as the coffee cherry beetle or plant diseases – even at altitudes that were previously considered safe.

Declining harvest volumes

In addition, coffee farmers around the world have to be prepared for short-term extreme weather events such as droughts, storms and floods. Honduras, another major coffee supplier, is already suffering from two climate change impacts. “Coffee production in Honduras has been declining for five years,” said Napoleón Matute, an expert at the Honduran Coffee Institute.

The Central American country between the Caribbean and the Pacific is repeatedly hit by hurricanes. According to experts, climate change is not necessarily making tropical storms more frequent, but they are likely to be stronger. At the same time, the number of droughts in the country is increasing.

New growing regions difficult

There are few alternative options and new cultivation regions for the farmers. According to Grüter, Ethiopia and south-west Kenya, for example, are likely to gain new potential cultivation areas; Nevertheless, this is not news that should inspire optimism, believes Christoph Gornott, head of the Department of Agroecosystem Analysis at the University of Kassel and at the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research: “It is almost impossible to shift production to higher altitudes, for example.”

Even if temperatures are suitable for growing coffee there, the soil conditions could reduce the quality of the coffee. The beans achieve the best quality in slightly acidic, nutrient-rich soil. In addition, there is a lack of know-how and infrastructure in the new regions, according to Gornott.

Drought or rain at the wrong time

But climate change is not only presenting farmers with new challenges when it comes to cultivation, the entire value chain is shaking, says Gornott: “In Africa, the usual dry seasons can no longer be relied on and parts of the coffee harvest are becoming more and more common due to mold infestation drying destroyed.”

There is a shortage of workers due to migration

Another problem, especially in Honduras, is climate-related migration, which is leading to a shortage of workers on the coffee farms there, says coffee expert Matute. Plantations are increasingly being abandoned. People emigrate after tropical storms or floods that cause great destruction. There are around 100,000 coffee producers in Honduras, mostly smallholders.
But even large coffee companies are likely to face problems in the future, according to Gornott. Because they mix different types of coffee to achieve a consistent taste with recognition value. Due to climate change, it will become increasingly difficult to achieve the same quality and quantity in the future. Therefore, there must be adjustment measures now.

Brazil has learned

Brazil learned from the severe drought almost ten years ago, says Márcio Ferreira from the Brazilian coffee exporters: “The entire coffee production had to reinvent itself”. Producers should have learned to collect water better. In addition, acreage has been reduced in recent decades and productivity increased.

“Bumping to the limit” with countermeasures

Gornott also sees great potential for mixed crop cultivation. Higher plants provide shade for the coffee, protect the soil from erosion after heavy rainfall and increase the carbon and nutrient content in the soil. This storey extension also helps against the rising temperatures – but only to a degree. “With the current forecasts, we are heading for a warming of three degrees. In this temperature range, we are reaching the limits that can be offset by adaptation measures,” warns Gornott.

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