Democrats make late messaging shift as GOP hammers away on economy
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Democrats make late messaging shift as GOP hammers away on economy
Cami Mondeaux November 05, 06:00 AM November 05, 06:00 AMAs Democrats face their first midterm election with Joe Biden as president, control of Congress — and their agenda with it — is on the line after two years of the party running Washington.
Each party has crafted its own messaging in a bid to sway voters, pouring millions of dollars into advertising and other forms of outreach. The economy, crime, and abortion have been the three key issues this cycle, but the amount of emphasis on each has evolved, at least for Democrats, as the midterm elections have progressed.
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Here are the issues each party hammered home and how the messaging has shifted in the lead-up to Election Day.
Democrats place their bets on abortion
After the Supreme Court announced in June it would be overturning Roe v. Wade, Democrats quickly seized on abortion access as a central issue in their campaigns.
In the days and weeks following the court’s decision, it looked like a winning bet. Early polling indicated that Roe’s reversal and subsequent state decisions to restrict abortion access would motivate a massive increase in voter turnout in Democrats’ favor.
As a result, Democrats spent heavily on the issue, pouring roughly $214 million into broadcast TV ads that mentioned abortion in the month of October — nearly half of all the party’s ad money spent that month, according to an analysis of AdImpact data. Abortion spending far surpassed advertising on any other issue, with only $79 million being spent on crime, which was their second-most mentioned topic.
However, it remains to be seen whether the gamble will pay off. While abortion remains an important issue for voters, only 15% rank it as their No. 1 concern, compared to 51% who say they are most worried about the economy, according to a recent CNN poll.
“I think that Republicans are better in tune with where the vast majority of voters are,” said John Feehery, a GOP strategist with EFB Advocacy, a lobbying firm located in Washington, D.C. “I think both sides are reflecting where their voters are right now, although it just seems like the vast majority of voters care about the things that Republicans are talking about. Democrats care about abortion, there’s no doubt about that, but there are just not as many of them. That’s why the Democrats are in big trouble this election.”
Republicans stick to inflation and Biden’s unpopularity
Meanwhile, Republicans have zeroed in on the economy, benefiting from historically high inflation rates that have harmed President Joe Biden’s approval ratings.
Since Labor Day, the GOP has spent more than $50 million on inflation-related advertising, according to the Washington Post. As a result, Biden’s favorability has continued to fall, with recent polling showing the president with a 42.1% average approval rating as of Friday.
“That’s what voters are worried about,” Feehery said. “I think the economy is always a top-tier issue. It’s not just about rising prices. … I don’t think that people feel that secure looking at the stock market, and that’s another reason, I think, why Republicans have been smart talking about issues that people care about.”
Comparatively, Democrats have largely shied away from the issue — only spending about $10 million on it nationally since Labor Day, according to the outlet. That may be because Democrats are largely considered to be at fault due to their control of Congress and the White House, according to Feehery.
“It’s hard for [Democrats] because they’re in charge. So, it’s hard to blame Republicans for inflation and crime because, by and large, they’re not in charge of any kind of federal program right now,” he said.
While Biden looms large, Democrats don’t let Republicans forget about Trump
Thanks to Biden’s low approval numbers, GOP candidates have sought to tie their Democratic opponents to the president on the campaign trail. Meanwhile, Democrats are refusing to let Republicans forget about Donald Trump.
Democratic candidates have repeatedly associated their opponents with the former president, particularly tying them to Trump’s unfounded claims of a stolen election in 2020 and the Jan. 6 attack on the Capitol. Attacks on Trump escalated over the summer as the Jan. 6 committee held its public hearings.
However, those hearings did little to move the needle on Trump in polling, as only 38% said they considered him to be “directly responsible” for the Jan. 6 riot — down from 42% who said the same before the hearings began, according to a poll from Monmouth University. Only 8% said the hearings had changed their opinions of him.
“Threats to democracy [and] political violence, they’re important issues,” said Brad Bannon, a Democratic strategist. “But there’s no getting around the fact that we’re so focused on the economy … Democrats need to do a much better job of addressing people’s financial concerns.”
Democrats shift to other issues in final weeks — but some say it's too little, too late
Democratic candidates did eventually shift their emphasis more to issues outside of abortion, airing campaign ads in the last week of October that focused on inflation and crime — hoping to make headway with just days left in the midterm cycle.
However, some strategists say the move was too little, too late — and that Democrats need a stronger pitch on the economy ahead of 2024.
“I think in the last few weeks, the Democrats have moved away from [their emphasis on abortion]. The question is whether it’s too late or not,” Bannon said. “I think after this is over next week, Democrats are going to have to focus and come up with an economic message.”
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Meanwhile, the state of the economy has allowed Republicans to make inroads with key voting blocs. For example, white suburban women, who helped Democrats seize control of the House in the 2018 midterm elections, favor Republican candidates by 15 percentage points, according to the most recent poll from the Wall Street Journal.
Overall, about 49% of likely voters say they plan to vote for a Republican, compared to just 45% who said the same about Democrats, according to a recent New York Times-Siena College poll. The increase in Republican support is partly due to the economy and inflation topping voter concerns, with 44% saying those were the most important issues facing the country.
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